The most electable GOP gubernatorial candidate in New Jersey – Holly Schepisi

New Jersey Republican players are full of optimism about the 2025 gubernatorial race. This is due to the closer than expected margin between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the Garden State in November’s presidential election. However, depending on the actions of the new Trump administration, this optimism could be very misplaced.

For example, if Trump carries out a large-scale deportation of undocumented immigrants that impacts the lives of thousands of New Jersey Hispanics, or sharply cuts Social Security or Medicare benefits, the result will be a massive backlash against the New Jersey Republican Party. New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial election will then become a referendum on the Trump administration’s policies, which would virtually ensure a Democratic gubernatorial victory.

That being said, however, the NJGOP has a major electability problem regarding its three main gubernatorial candidates. State Sen. Jon Bramnick is the most electable GOP candidate in the general election but is unwinnable in the primary. Radio host Bill Spadea may well prevail in the primary, but he’s a bit of a loser in the general election. While Jack Ciattarelli is the presumptive front-runner, his past misgivings and ambiguities regarding Donald Trump have resulted in significant losses of credibility among both MAGA and mainstream GOP primary voters. What follows is a brief analysis of all three candidates.

Jon Bramnick

Bramnick has been an outstanding state legislator for more than two decades. He has maintained a coherent and comprehensive center-right philosophy throughout his term. His ethics are unimpeachable and his competence as a lawyer is outstanding. His knowledge of state government is first-class, and he has the knowledge, administrative and people skills to be an outstanding state governor. If nominated, he would have a very good chance of being elected.

The day before Election Day 2024, I suggested to a friend that Bramnick could become New Jersey’s leading Republican gubernatorial candidate for the post-Trump era if Trump lost the national election to Kamala Harris. As a leading anti-Trump opinion journalist from New Jersey, I admired his courage and acumen when he refused to support Donald Trump, his party’s presidential nominee in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Unfortunately for Bramnick, Donald Trump won in 2024. He will remain the epitome of the Republican Party until he is discredited by events. As long as Trump maintains this status, Jon Bramnick cannot win a statewide Republican primary in New Jersey.

Bill Spadea

Spadea has two major strengths that could allow him to win the Republican primary. First, he will have the support of the overwhelming majority of MAGA voters. Second, he enjoys the support of George Gilmore, the powerful and effective chairman of the Ocean County Republican Committee. The combination of a big win in Ocean County, which will receive the most votes in the 2025 GOP primary, and a majority of MAGA voters statewide could allow Bill Spadea, with his considerable communication skills and charisma, to win the year Enforce 2025 NJGOP gubernatorial primary.
There are aspects of Spadea that actually make him more likeable than Trump. The Donald is anti-intellectual and conveys a negative sense of empathy that only appeals to a voter’s resentment and anger. Spadea exudes a hopeful, Reagan-esque empathy for voters and also has a healthy dose of historical intellectualism. Furthermore, unlike Trump, Spadea is neither racist nor misogynistic. He has no personal or financial scandals and leads a monogamous lifestyle.

But Spadea’s vehement anti-abortion stance would doom him in the 2025 gubernatorial election. Abortion choice is a third pillar of New Jersey politics. Instead of neglecting his Chris Christie-style anti-abortion views in the 2009 election, Spadea made them the centerpiece of his campaign. Such positioning is anathema to the vast majority of female voters and will hand Bill Spadea a landslide defeat in the general election.

Jack Ciatarelli

In the 2017 Republican gubernatorial primary, Jack Ciatarelli ran as a principled anti-Trump candidate and won my admiration. Unfortunately, unlike Jon Bramnick, Ciattarelli proved to be a man whose ambitions overrode his principles.

A column I wrote during the 2021 campaign described Ciattarelli’s obsequious efforts to appease and appeal to MAGA voters, even going so far as to attend a MAGA Stop the Steal rally. These efforts only earned him the distrust of both MAGA and mainstream GOP voters.

In this election there is a Pac group, the Kitchen Table Conservatives, independent of Ciatarelli but with the apparent goal of defeating Spadea, Ciatarelli’s primary opponent, on the grounds that Spadea is not sufficiently pro-Trump. Such efforts will undoubtedly result in catastrophic failure. One may criticize Spadea harshly for a variety of reasons, but not because he is not sufficiently pro-Trump.

I’m not saying Ciattarelli can’t win a primary or a general gubernatorial election. However, the distrust factor remains, affecting both his nomination and his chances in the general elections.

The election problems facing Ciattarelli, Bramnick and Spadea add to the appeal for the Bergen County state senator Holly Schepisi run for governor. She is the New Jersey Republican Party’s most electable gubernatorial candidate. She is everyone’s favorite for the GOP lieutenant governor nomination, but she has not yet ruled out a run for governor.

On the Trump issue, Holly always provides unenthusiastic but never disloyal support. This makes her acceptable to all wings of the GOP in the primaries and the potential candidate least likely to be negatively affected by a decline in Trump’s overall approval ratings. On the issue of abortion, she takes a sensible centrist position and defends a woman’s right to choose, but is willing to consider common sense limitations.

There are two major benefits a Schepisi gubernatorial run would bring to the NJGOP. First, it would give the GOP a solid chance of winning Bergen County at large. In fact, her political origins lie with Bergen County Republican Cary Edwards. The late Cary Edwards would have been a great governor if elected in 1989 or 1993. Second, she gives Republicans, more than any other candidate, a fighting chance to capture a larger share of the vote among college-educated white women.

Before the 2019 general election, I wrote a column effusively praising Schepisi for both her governing and advocacy skills. She would make an excellent governor of New Jersey. However, in order to run, she must decide to enter the primary soon to raise enough money and hire staff.

Alan J. Steinberg of Highland Park served as regional administrator of Region 2 EPA and executive director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission during the administration of former President George W. Bush. He graduated from Northwestern University and the University of Wisconsin Law School. He is the host of the podcast “Dynamic Political Centrism,” published on Substack.

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