The number of job openings at JOLTS rose to 7.74 million in October compared to the forecast of 7.48 million

The number of job openings on the last business day of October was 7.74 million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This figure followed 7.37 million openings in September and was above market expectations of 7.48 million.

“Over the month, new hires barely changed at 5.3 million. The number of total layoffs was little changed at 5.3 million,” the BLS noted in its press release. “As part of the separations, layoffs increased (3.3 million), but layoffs and layoffs (1.6 million) changed little.”

Market reaction to JOLTS job vacancies data

The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded slightly from session lows following the data and was last down 0.07% on the day at 106.30.

This section below was published at 09:00 GMT as a preview of JOLTS US job openings data.

• The US JOLTS data will be closely watched ahead of the release of the November jobs report on Friday.
• Job vacancies are forecast to remain below 8 million in October.
• The state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials in determining policy.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data on the change in the number of vacancies in October as well as the number of layoffs and terminations.

JOLTS data is being closely scrutinized by market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers because it can provide valuable insights into supply-demand dynamics in the labor market, a key factor affecting wages and inflation. Since the number of job vacancies topped 12 million in March 2022, it has declined steadily, indicating a steady slowdown in labor market conditions. In September, the number of jobs fell to 7.44 million, marking the lowest level since January 2021.

What awaits you in the next JOLTS report?

Markets expect there will be about 7.5 million job vacancies on the last business day of October. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers made it clear after the July policy meeting that they will shift their focus to the labor market amid encouraging signs that inflation is declining toward the central bank’s target.

It’s important to note that while the JOLTS data is for the end of October, the official jobs report released on Friday measures data for November.

In October, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by just 12,000 as hurricanes and labor strikes had a significant negative impact on hiring. Regarding the employment situation in the US, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago, said: “The labor market is almost stable and at full employment.” “It may make sense to slow the pace of interest rate cuts as the Fed commits to stabilizing the Interest rates are approaching,” he added, saying he was more comforted by the fact that they “aren’t crashing through full employment.”

The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows that markets are pricing in a further 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in December with a probability of around 65%. Should there be a positive surprise in the jobs data of 8 million or more, the immediate reaction could boost the US dollar (USD) by causing investors to reassess the likelihood of a rate cut in December. On the other hand, a disappointing reading at or below 7 million could hurt the USD.

“Over the month, new hires barely changed at 5.6 million. Total layoffs remained unchanged at 5.2 million,” the BLS noted in its September JOLTS report. “Little has changed in separations, layoffs (3.1 million) and layoffs and layoffs (1.8 million).”

When will the JOLTS report be released and what impact could it have on EUR/USD?

Vacancies figures will be released on Tuesday at 3:00pm GMT. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares his opinion on the possible impact of the JOLTS data on EUR/USD:

“Unless there is a significant divergence between market expectations and actual numbers, the market reaction to the JOLTS data is likely to be short-lived as investors will not take large positions ahead of the highly anticipated November jobs data, which is the case “will be published on Friday.”

“The short-term technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests that the bearish bias remains intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart remains well below 50 and the pair continues to trade below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).”

“On the positive side, 1.0600 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of the October-December downtrend, 20-day SMA) represents the key resistance.” If EUR/USD rises above this level and begins to trade it as To use support, technical buyers could take action. In this scenario, 1.0700 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) could be seen as the next hurdle before 1.0800 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 50-day SMA). Looking south, first support could be found at 1.0400 (downtrend end point) ahead of 1.0330 (November 22 low) and 1.0300 (static level, round level).”