The Oilers’ underperforming winger gets a fresh start in familiar surroundings

Article content

Matchday 35: Edmonton in Los Angeles

Article content

Article content

The Edmonton Oilers return to action after a five-day holiday break on Saturday afternoon (2:00 p.m. MDT) against an old and bitter rival, the Los Angeles Kings. For an Oiler, returning to his former home could mean a fresh start in a season that hasn’t gone well.

I’m talking about right wing Viktor Arvidssonthe flagship free agent the Oilers added and brought back as part of an action-packed signing spree on Canada Day. From day one, even from the first paragraph Cult of hockey post When the signing was announced, it seemed obvious that Jeff Jackson and the Oilers saw him as the solution to fill a long-standing void Leon DraisaitlThe right flank.

Article content

The 31-year-old winger had become a free agent when the seven-year, $29.75 million contract he signed in Nashville in the summer of 2017 expired. He spent the last three of those seasons in LA, where he scored 52 goals and 71 assists in 161 games, an impressive average of 26-36-62 per 82 games.

Problem: That’s only two seasons’ worth of games spread over three seasons in Tinseltown.

Likewise, the Kings had played in three playoff series in those three years, all first-round losses to the Oilers. Arvidsson scored an outstanding 10 points in 11 games in two of those series, but missed the other one (2022) entirely.

As I wrote on the day the signing was imminent:

• His durability is the biggest question, averaging 60 GP over his nine full* NHL seasons. (*Nashville played 69 games in 2019-20, 56 in 2021). Overall, his attendance rate was around 77%.

In Arvidsson’s first season as an Oiler, the issue of durability has once again come to the forefront. After a slow start in which he tallied just 5 points in 16 games, the 5-foot-10, 185-pound winger was sidelined by a hip problem that began as a “game-time decision” but ultimately led to a five-week layoff.

It wasn’t until the week before Christmas that he returned to the lineup as a rusty fourth line-up against Boston and then got a jump into the third line-up against San Jose. In the last game before the break he experienced something of a break when he was asked to step in for the struggling top group Ryan Nugent Hopkins. He took full advantage and buried a Connor McDavid Feed to open the scoring and then contribute a primary assist Zach HymanThe winner of the game on the power play.

RNH has since recovered and returned to his usual spot alongside McDavid and Hyman on the front row after practice on Friday. But Arvidsson has managed to stay in the top six, where he looks set to rejoin Draisaitl. That seems to have been the original plan; It just took him a while to get back there. Even better, after playing on the wing for three games, he’s reverting to his natural right side.

Article content

Article content

The chain reaction triggered by RNH’s return continues throughout the lineup. Draisaitl’s former RW, Kasperi Kapanen is pushed down a line to the third unit, where he moves to the left side next to it Adam Henrique And Connor Brown. The previous resident of this LW place, Mattias Janmarkwill take and replace the 4C position Derek Ryan Who will be scratched healthy?

The most significant change among all these adjustments is certainly the reinstatement of Arvidsson at 2RW, where there is every reason to expect an improved offensive performance. After all, this is a player who has averaged well over 2.0 points per 60 at 5-on-5 in five of his last eight seasons, none of which were spent with a linemate as good as the great Draisaitl.

In this table adjusted out of Natural statistics trickThe rightmost column reflects a significant decline in Arvidsson’s productivity at 5-on-5 in the first half of the 2024-25 season, where his current 1.19 P/60 represents his lowest total since entering the league in 2015-16 . Of course, the season is still young, especially for the Swede, who has only played 19 games so far. So there is enough time to get closer to the mean again. This process may have already begun in the last game.

Article content

Surely he needs to find offensive chemistry with Draisaitl, with whom he played 160 of his 253 minutes at 5v5, over 63%. So far, Arvi has only managed 2-1-3 in these minutes, which equates to a paltry score of 1.13 P/60.

The underlying numbers suggest the duo earned more than the 5-5 split of true goals scored in those 160 minutes, in which Edmonton scored 63% of shots, 63% of high-danger chances and 58% the scoring chances had expected goals. It’s obvious that if these two continue to drive the game at this pace, the goals will come.

Oil fans can only add: the sooner the better.

Compare and contrast

Interesting comparison here with Kings winger Warren Foegele, the former Oiler who crossed the aisle to sign with LA on the very day Arvidsson did the same in Edmonton. The cap hit is $3.5 million for Foegele, $4.0 million for Arvidsson, so very comparable.

A year ago, Foegele, a native LW, played 6½ hours 5v5 with Draisaitl, mostly on the right side. All he accomplished during that time was scoring 8 goals and 11 assists for an average of 2.94 points per 60. That made up a nice chunk of his season performance of 20-21-41, including 17-20-37 at 5v5 (2.19 points per 60).

Article content

So far in the 2024-25 season, the durable Foegele has continued to perform well, going 9-9-18 in 34 games, with every single one of those points coming at 5-on-5. So far it’s a decent 2.40 points per 60, with an impressive on-ice goal percentage of 22 for and just 11 against. Lately, the sturdy winger has played on an imposing line with Quinton Byfield and Tanner Jeannot that offers a nice combination of size, speed and physicality (if you’re a Kings fan).

Good for him, I say. Six months ago, the Oilers saw fit to “upgrade” at his old position, and in due course they will reap what they sowed. On Saturday afternoon, fans of both teams will have the first opportunity to compare the two middle-six wingers who switched organizations on this important day in what amounted to a quasi-trade.

Recently at the Cult of Hockey

STAPLES: Insiders say the Oilers should look to expensive veterans on struggling teams. Hmmm

STAPLES: For Darnell Nurse, revenge is a dish best served cold over ice

STAPLES: The 10th Annual “The Best Thing About Every Edmonton Oilers Player,” Holiday 2024 Edition

McCURDY: Player notes from the 3-1 win over Ottawa

LEAVINS: 9 things about the Oilers’ resurgence in December

Article content