The Padres are spending enough to get into the playoffs, but can they win it all? History says it will be tough – San Diego Union-Tribune

It would be a shame for the Padres and their fans if acquiring the World Series trophy became too expensive.

As Major League Baseball’s offseason heats up, two headwinds raise the complicated issue of baseball finances as it relates to the Padres.

Firstly, the ongoing consequences of Peter Seidler’s death last year.

Secondly, Major League Baseball’s economic system, which is aimed at larger clubs in the media market, which seem to be getting more greedy and smarter by the day.

It would be a shame if Seidler’s death closed the window for the World Series in San Diego. I don’t believe that is or will be the case, although I recognize that Eric Kutsenda, Seidler’s successor and long-time friend and business partner of the late Padres chairman, may resemble Seidler in his leadership role.

There is no denying that Seidler was extremely aggressive in his approach to baseball competition. “Go big or go home” seemed to be his attitude towards the end of his term.

Seidler’s last four Padres payrolls landed squarely in the top quarter of the 30 MLB teams. This remains a stunning fact considering the franchise ranks in the bottom five media markets in MLB.

Consider these top 10 numbers: San Diego ranked sixth, seventh, fifth and third on payroll between 2020 and 2023, according to figures provided by Ronald Blum of The Associated Press.

The Padres were unable to reward Seidler’s great accomplishments by winning a World Series trophy. They also failed to secure the franchise’s third National League pennant.

But under the current MLB labor pact and the previous one, passed months before Seidler became part owner of the Padres in August 2012, there was a not-insignificant connection between payroll levels and winning the trophy.

During Seidler’s first nine full years with the Padres, the World Series champions averaged seventh in payroll. According to the current collective agreement, which runs until 2026, the champions ranked sixth on average.

So Seidler’s late-season spending put the Padres in a pretty good position.

The Padres were 15th in payroll entering the 2024 season. Presumably, Kutsenda – who succeeded Seidler in November 2023 – had a big say in this payroll. (Kutsenda also had to deal with different financial circumstances than before.)

Let’s assume that payroll will also land around 15th place in 2025. Is that enough to win the cup?

The relevant story is not very encouraging.

Of the 12 World Series champions under Seidler-era collective bargaining agreements, only the Houston Astros finished 2017 with a payroll below 14th. It might be fair to give these Astros an asterisk, considering the MLB views them as sign-stealing cheats.

Better inspiration, Padres fans, comes from the 2013 Kansas City Royals and 2021 Atlanta Braves, who finished 13th and 14th in MLB payroll, respectively.

Under MLB’s current labor pact, the sample size is small, and the results aren’t very Padres-friendly. The World Series champion Astros, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers ranked ninth, sixth and third on the payroll.

There is reason for optimism here. Padres president of baseball operations AJ Preller has shown over the last 12 months that he can thrive with a mid-range payroll. The ’24 Padres won 93 games, the second-highest total in franchise history. Oddly enough, the Padres’ best win-loss record in the Petco Park era before last season was the 90-win miracle the Padres achieved in 2010, whose payroll ranked last in MLB at $38.6 million landed.

Last season, several of Preller’s acquisitions exceeded their salaries by a wide margin. These included homegrown centerfielder Jackson Merrill (21), pitchers Dylan Cease (28) and Michael King (28), and outfielder Jurickson Profar (31).

Preller’s farm system represents potentially tremendous value for future Padres teams and features two prospects: shortstop Leodalis De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas, 18 each, who appear on top 100 lists compiled by former MLB scouts became.

And MLB Network reports that the Padres are considered co-favorites with the Dodgers to sign Roki Sasaki, a low-cost Japanese ace and certainly Preller’s top offseason target.

The bottom line here is: The Padres are doing better than many other smaller clubs, a fact that former Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates president Dick Freeman has often noted; But their bid for the trophy would be much more realistic under the NFL’s economic system and perhaps if Kutsenda shares Seidler’s eagerness to fund a champion.

Originally published: December 4, 2024 at 5:35 pm PST