The Syrian civil war is suddenly no longer frozen. How much can Russia afford to support the Assad regime this time? – Meduza

Investigative news outlet The Insider reports that pro-war Russian Telegram channels criticized not only Kisel, but also Moscow’s “entire system” of sending generals who had led unsuccessful operations in Ukraine to Syria. “The Syrian sandbox has long been a place for laundering the reputations of failed generals who have proven incompetent in the zone,” wrote the popular broadcaster Rybar.

In fact, in recent years, Russia has sent generals who were unsuccessful in Ukraine to Syria, says Meduza’s expert: “Probably because there was a stable ceasefire in Syria, which meant there was nothing to screw up there.” And before After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the expert explained, Syria was a place for Russian generals “to prove themselves.” This led to most Russian officers having similar ideas about military tactics – ideas that often did not translate well to the war in Ukraine.

Can Russia conserve the resources to save Assad again?

As of February 2022, Russia maintains several military bases in Syria and leaves some troops in the country, but has also withdrawn significant troops to support the invasion of Ukraine. According to Meduza’s expert, these include several special forces brigades, Wagner mercenary units, some helicopters and Su-34 bombers, as well as numerous artillery units.

“The remaining forces operating on a rotational basis include some special forces, security forces for air bases and the Tartus naval base, as well as parts of an aviation group,” Meduza’s expert said. “It was probably assumed that the 2020 agreements with (Turkish President Recep Tayyip) Erdoğan would ensure the security of Syria, which meant that Russia considered the remaining troop levels to be sufficient.”

At the same time, Meduza’s expert believes that despite the war in Ukraine, Russia may be capable of the same level of intervention as it has been since 2015. “This is quite possible if Iran restores its forces in Syria to previous levels, including (Iran-controlled militias from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as units of the Lebanese (Iran-backed militia) Hezbollah,” explains the expert. “Iran has always provided ‘cannon fodder’ for joint operations in Syria. Russia could redeploy special forces brigades, but this would slightly weaken its front in Ukraine.”

However, Moscow would have to overcome some logistical hurdles: Since Turkey closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to all military ships in 2022, it is “unlikely that Russia will be able to operate the straits as before – which is a problem for the “Represents adequate supply of a large country.” Number of troops,” said the expert.

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In the longer term, Russia is likely to face even more complex challenges on the ground. In October 2023, international affairs expert Nikia Smagin wrote in an article calling Syria Russia’s “forgotten front” that a “weakening of Russian influence (in Syria) appears inevitable following the formal dissolution of the Wagner Group”:

A year later, Meduza’s expert said, the collapse of the paramilitary cartel was irreversible, even if many of the Wagner Group’s fighters were still active in the Russian military or in splinter groups in Africa. “Wagner has splintered into various factions, lost manpower (even compared to the time of the war in Syria) and lost central control,” he said. “The forces fighting in Africa are clearly not enough to change the situation in Syria.”

Nevertheless, the Main Intelligence Agency of Ukraine (HUR) reported on Tuesday that Russia is indeed sending mercenary troops to Syria. “Moscow’s leaders decided to send mercenaries from ‘private military companies’ to the Middle Eastern country to help them. The arrival of fighters – probably from the so-called ‘Africa Corps’ – is expected,” the agency said.

Russia and Turkey have long supported opposing parties in Syria but maintain a working relationship that allows Ankara to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, for example. According to Meduza’s expert, it is still too early to say what impact these developments will have on Russia-Turkey relations.

“We don’t know what informal agreements currently exist between Putin and Erdoğan. There is even a conspiracy theory that says Putin “sold” Assad to Erdoğan in return for something that would fit their previous relationship dynamic,” Meduza’s expert said. “We also don’t know to what extent Turkey was involved in the planning (of the Aleppo operation).”

The expert also notes that although HTS cooperates with Turkey, it is not completely subordinate to Ankara. “Pro-Turkish forces later joined the offensive from territory they captured in the Kurdish cantons north of Aleppo,” he said.

On Tuesday evening, Russian state media reported that Putin and Erdogan had a telephone conversation to discuss the situation in Syria. The two leaders reportedly stressed “the importance of close coordination between Russia, Turkey and Iran in resolving the situation in Syria.”