Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan – Prediction, Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchup, Trends and Stats

Michigan (7-5) isn’t the juggernaut of a program that went undefeated through its schedule last year en route to a national championship, as its 90th SP+ offense has drastically limited its ability to keep up with the rest of the expanded Big Ten . UM went 4-2 in the first half of the schedule, then lost 3 of 4 to @Illinois (21-7), Oregon (38-17) and @Indiana (20-15) before losing to Northwestern Defeated 50:0. 6. However, the 5-loss season was all but forgotten by Michigan fans as they went to the Horseshoe and placed a capital “M” at midfield after a thrilling 13-10 win over the Buckeyes.

The Wolverines ultimately chose former walk-on QB Davis Warren, who emerged from a three-QB rotation early in the season, to win the job. UM ranks second to last (134th) nationally in pass explosiveness and plays at 131st^st slowest pace in the country. Their run defense is strong, ranking 16th in completion percentage allowed, while UM’s secondary ranks 15th in pass explosiveness but allows a 61.1% completion rate (74th), a few notches below their dominant version of 2023.

Despite a 24-17 loss to Tennessee and a 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt despite a 99% postgame win expectation, Alabama (9-3) was still in control of its destiny and made it to the CFP playoffs, coming up in Week 13 with Oklahoma (6-7). However, the Tide and QB Jalen Milroe were overwhelmed by the Sooners’ defense, completing 11 of 27 passes with three interceptions, resulting in a humiliating 24-3 loss that ultimately ended their playoff hopes and Bama in this SEC against B10 Blue landed a bloody showdown with the Wolverines.

The Crimson Tide were once again explosive on offense, ranking 5th in 20-yard play percentage (9.1%) and 13th in marginal explosiveness, with the passing game boasting a 49% pass success rate (11th). set the tone. Defensively, they rank 9th nationally and 10th in EPA/dropback. However, the Bama pass rush is a shell of its former self, ranking 84th in sacks per dropback (5.2%) and 66th with a pressure rate of 35%.

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Game details and how to watch the 2024 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Alabama vs. Michigan

· Date: Saturday, December 31, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Location: Raymond James Stadium
· City: Tampa, FL
· TV/Streaming: ESPN

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2024 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Alabama vs. Michigan odds

• Money line: Alabama Crimson Tide (-500), Michigan Wolverines (+375)
• Spread: Crimson Tide (-13.5)
• Over/Under: 43.5 points

We have an Alabama opening line of -11.5/-395, which has now increased to -13.5, with a money line of -600 in some places, approaching the key number of -14. The overall value, however, is stable at 43.5.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) says:
“Michigan is dealing with a number of impact opt-outs including its two-star DTs Graham & Grant, CB Will Johnson (Inj.), LT Myles Hinton and both RBs Kalel Mullings/Donovan Edwards. I can’t help but think the Ohio State game was Michigan’s icing on the cake, and I wonder how much veteran talent will be on the field for UM. Accordingly, I expect Alabama to score over 27.5 points.”

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Quarterback matchup for 2024 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Alabama vs. Michigan

• Michigan: The quarterback threesome of Davis Warren, Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle failed in its attempt to replicate the success of departed QB JJ McCarthy. Orji was well behind the others in terms of passing skill, managing just 148 yards on 43 attempts before being mercifully waived in favor of Indiana transfer Jack Tuttle. Tuttle was of little use before retiring and handing the job back to Warren. Since returning to the starting lineup in Week 9 against Michigan State, Warren has been a consistent, if unspectacular, steward of the UM offense, completing 63.6% of his passes with a 6-to-9 TD/INT ratio and one Averaged a paltry 5.7 yards gained per pass attempt. To his credit, Warren threw six interceptions in his first three starts, but since regaining the job in Week 9, he has only turned the ball over three times while posting a respectable PFF offensive grade of 68 percent this year .

• Alabama: QB Jalen Milroe took over the starting quarterback job at Alabama in 2023 and averaged 10.0 yards per attempt on a 23-to-6 ratio while posting an overall grade of 88.7, which ranked 14th nationally. Much of Milroe’s value comes from his legs: Over the last two years, he ran 313 times for 1,250 yards and 32 touchdowns, with a running grade of 85.3, which ranked him third in the FBS last year. His passing ability has lagged somewhat this season with an average YPA of 9.1 on a 15-to-10 ratio and a passing grade of 81.2, which ranks 23rd overall. Milroe made great strides in handling the pass rush this season, going from a pressure-to-sack rate of 31.9 to a much-improved rate of 17.1%.

Alabama vs. Michigan: Betting trends and current stats

• Davis Warren has not completed a pass longer than 40 yards on any of his 202 total pass attempts since the 2023 season, which is the worst mark among power conference quarterbacks
• Michigan is 2-6 (.250) against the spread when converting on less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season, which is 11th-worst in the FBS. (Average: .440)
• Michigan’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 5.8% of 293 attempts this season, the second-worst rate among FBS offenses. Alabama’s defense allowed more than 20 yards on just 7.9% of attempts this season, ranking 23rd among FBS defenses.
• Michigan is 1-4 (.200) against the spread when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season, 10th-worst among power conference teams. (Average: .424)
• Kalel Mullings has rushed for 10 or more yards on just 16 of his 185 carries this season, fourth-fewest among power conference running backs.
• QB Davis Warren has thrown just 23% of his pass attempts for first downs with 7-10 yards to go this season, fifth-worst among power conference quarterbacks. Creating manageable 3rd-down situations will be crucial for Michigan.
• Ryan Williams has gained more than 40 yards on 7 of his 45 receptions this season, making him the best among skill players in the Power Conference.
• Germie Bernard has gained more than 20 yards on 17 of his 46 receptions this season, fourth-best among power conference skill players.
• Alabama has hit just 63 of 436 rushing attempts (14% TFL%) against opponents this season, third-worst in the SEC.
• Michigan has gained 1,603 yards on 179 receptions (just 9.0 YPR) this season, the worst among Big Ten skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.2 yards per reception this season, which is second best among SEC defenses.
• Jalen Milroe has thrown 5 TD passes in tight and late situations this season, the most among SEC quarterbacks
• Alabama has allowed passes longer than 40 yards on just 3 of 379 attempts this season, the second-best performance in the SEC.

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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line Movement (Open to Now)

• Texas +1000 to +300
• Ohio State +700 to +375
• Oregon +900 to +400
• Georgia +500 to +550

Highest ticket percentage

• Ohio State 12.3%
• Texas 9.7%
• Georgia 9.7%

Highest grip %

• Ohio State 15.0%
• Georgia 13.6%
• Texas 10.4%

Largest Liabilities

• Arizona State
• Notre Dame
• Boise State

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