U of I Seminar – AG INFORMATION NETWORK OF THE WEST

U of I Seminary

Registration is open through Dec. 13 for an annual University of Idaho Extension seminar featuring sessions on input cost analysis, supply, demand and price outlook for Idaho’s key commodities.

The 2024 Idaho Ag Outlook Seminar will be held Dec. 18 at the Hilton Garden Inn Boise Downtown, 348 S. 13th St., Boise. Anyone who cannot attend in person can register for virtual participation. There is a $35 fee for both in-person and online participants, and those who attend in person will receive lunch.

The opening speech begins at 9:00 a.m. and the final presentation of the day ends at 4:15 p.m. Food producers, government officials and others involved in Idaho agriculture use the seminar as an opportunity to brush up on trends and make decisions for the upcoming growing season.

In previous years, UI Extension held separate seminars in Idaho Falls, Twin Falls, Nampa and Lewiston.

“When we go to an event, it’s much easier for us to attract high-quality speakers and really focus on making it a quality event,” said Brett Wilder, agricultural economist with UI Extension and organizer of the seminar.

Wilder has taken the lead in producing a highly anticipated report on the state’s net agricultural income and gross crop receipts in 2024 entitled “The Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture.” The state legislature and the Idaho Tax Commission use the report’s data to support revenue forecasting. During the seminar, Wilder will present the results of his report, which was prepared with the support of agricultural economist Xiaoxue “Rita” Du.

“What made me feel really good was how close we were last year – just one percent of that,” Wilder said.

Wilder expects farm profits to fall significantly in 2024 to their lowest level in at least three years. The report will show that cash returns for most crops were lower while production costs remained relatively unchanged, resulting in many commodities being less profitable. For example, prices for animal feed, including alfalfa and corn, have fallen, and an oversupply of potatoes has led to a weak potato market, but the cost of producing these crops has changed little in a year. Livestock farming is a bright spot. The beef market is particularly strong as the country’s cattle herd is now the smallest in more than 60 years. Although dairy producers’ gross revenues are expected to remain relatively flat, Wilder predicts dairy profit margins will be higher this year due to lower feed prices.

“Dairies have an insurance product that pays based on margins, and last year for the first time it paid every single month because the margins were so terrible,” Wilder explained.

Also on the seminar agenda is an outlook on Idaho agriculture policy from Dexton Lake from the Idaho Farm Bureau Federation; an analysis of national and global macroeconomic trends by Doug Robison, president of AgWest Farm Credit in Idaho; a water and weather outlook from Troy Lindquist, senior hydrologist for the National Weather Service; a grain outlook from Area Extension Educator Colby Field; a report on input cost trends by Xiaoli Etienne, U of I associate professor and Bill Flory Endowed Chair in Commodity Risk Management at the Idaho Wheat Commission; a great perspective from UI Extension Educator Steve Hines; a potato outlook from UI Extension agricultural economist Patrick Hatzenbuehler; a report on other important crops, including sugar beets and onions, from Colby Field; a beef outlook from Wilder and a dairy outlook from Dustin Winston, a commodities analyst at StoneX Group Inc.

Wilder encourages county UI Extension offices to host watch parties where they livestream the event for local producers and others from outside the Treasure Valley who want to attend without traveling.

“It’s always less exciting to talk about things when things are less rosy, but I think when we’re not at all-time highs it’s even more important to know where the market is and what opportunities we have to maximize that.” “Whatever we can get for ourselves raw materials,” Wilder said.