Up to their ninth life: Possible playoff scenarios for Cougs

After two straight heartbreaking losses, the BYU Cougars now find themselves in a logjam at the top of the Big 12 standings heading into the final week of the regular season.

The unfortunate thing for Cougar fans is that BYU is no longer in control of its own destiny heading into the Big 12 Championship Game on December 7th in Arlington, Texas. If the Cougars want to play for the conference championship and a shot at the College Football Playoff, they’re going to need help.

After all the action on November 23rd, BYU sits tied for the lead with a 6-2 conference record with the Arizona State Sun Devils, Iowa State Cyclones and Colorado Buffaloes. In addition, nine teams still have a mathematical chance of winning the conference title.

According to the Big 12 Conference tiebreakers, the Sun Devils and Cyclones would be the two teams that would advance if the season ended today, while the Cougars would finish in third place.

Iowa State’s edge over BYU is that the Cyclones have played against tougher opponents statistically this year, as the combined winning percentage of Cyclones opponents is .427 while the combined winning percentage of Cougars opponents is .380.

That may seem unbelievable to some, considering the undefeated Cougars were in sole possession of first place just two weeks ago. But after coming up just short against Kansas and Arizona State, BYU now needs some help to salvage a once-promising season.

However, hope is not lost for Cougar fans as BYU still has a chance to play at Texas on December 7th.

Here are a few possible paths to the Big 12 Championship for the Cougars…

The meetings of the four at the top of the conference on Saturday

There’s still a whole week of football left to play, and if fans have learned anything this season, any Saturday can cause chaos in the most unexpected areas.

BYU faces a match against the 4-7 University of Houston Cougars at Lavell Edwards Stadium on Saturday at 8:15 p.m. on ESPN.

Iowa State faces the toughest opponent of the four main teams in the competition on Saturday, hosting the 8-3 Kansas State Wildcats with a 5:30 p.m. kickoff on Fox.

Arizona State faces a tough test on Saturday when it travels to Tucson, Arizona to take on local rival University of Arizona Wildcats at 1:30 p.m. on Fox.

The Colorado Buffaloes will get a Black Friday matinee against the 3-8 Oklahoma State Cowboys at 10 a.m. on ABC and ESPN.

Simply put, for BYU to jump into one of the top two spots, they need to take care of things against Houston and ensure that either Iowa State or Arizona State loses on Saturday.

What each scenario means

As mentioned, Arizona State and Iowa State currently face each other in a tiebreaker against Colorado and BYU, which means that if things stay that way, fans will see a Sun Devils-Cyclones battle for the Big 12 Championship and a likely spot in the College Football Playoff.

But in a conference that has been hectic all year, there is plenty of room for BYU to sneak in and keep its hopes alive.

What then would a loss by the Sun Devils or Cyclones mean for the Cougars?

Scenario A: Iowa State loses to Kansas State

Many experts believe the Cougars’ best chance of qualifying for the conference championship is a BYU win and an Iowa State loss to the Wildcats.

In this hypothetical scenario, BYU would claim Iowa State’s spot and prepare for the highly anticipated rematch against Arizona State; only this time it would take place on a neutral field in Arlington.

BYU would, of course, face any opponent in the Big 12 Championship Game; However, given the chaotic finish and premature field rush in their game against Arizona State, one can’t help but think the Cougars would be itching for another shot at the Sun Devils.

Scenario B: Arizona beats Arizona State

College football rivalry games are unpredictable at best. Although Arizona State is better than Arizona in almost every statistical category, there is a chance the Wildcats could upset the Sun Devils on Saturday.

Arizona is led on offense by quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, the two projected first-round selections in the NFL Draft.

In that scenario, the Sun Devils, who just earned one of their biggest wins in program history over BYU, would be eliminated from the Big 12 championship game while BYU would take their place and face Iowa State on Dec. 7 in Arlington.

Scenario C: Iowa State and Arizona State both lose

In a year where change seems to be the overarching theme, this hypothetical scenario seems to fit that narrative perfectly.

Both the Cyclones and Sun Devils had emotional wins last week to keep their championship hopes alive, which could make it difficult to shift their focus to Saturday.

If that happens, BYU and Colorado would each have a ticket to Texas and a shot at the College Football Playoff.

This is undoubtedly the wildest of possible outcomes, but what a story it would be.

The end result

According to Cougar head coach Kalani Sitake, the task for BYU is ultimately a straightforward one.

“I know they (Houston) are going to be very excited to come here and play this game, so we have to be ready for that,” Sitake said in his weekly press conference. “We have to control the things we can control, which is putting in our best performances and making sure we give our fans and our seniors what they want this weekend.”

All scenarios explained above are null and void if BYU loses on Saturday. Therefore, it is imperative for Sitake’s squad to shift their focus forward to a dangerous Houston team.

The Cougars can no longer change their mistakes of the last few weeks and are finding themselves in a situation where they have to rely on other teams to win.

In a week where what “could be” will be a hot topic in the sports world, BYU needs to focus on itself and just wait and see how it turns out.

Who knows how things will play out in the Big 12, but one thing is for sure: football fans will be on edge this weekend as the drama unfolds.

Feature image: Gear for BYU fans. Photo credit: Rhett Vasseur

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