Voters believe a house divided on abortion can stand — for now

Well, maybe. The reinstatement of Donald Trump could mark a turning point in American culture and governance. We have experienced moments like this before and we will do it again. And certainly the comeback of the elected president against a completely unprecedented grand alliance of established institutions determined to stop him by almost all means (two impeachments, four indictments, countless investigations, trials and lawsuits, petitions to exclude him from the elections, etc . etc.). ) represents the most astonishing personal vindication in the annals of American incitement.

And yet it is also entirely possible that Trump’s hair-raising triumph remains essentially a mere continuation of our decades-long period of indecision and serial upheaval.

Republicans have now won two of the last three presidential elections. But Democrats have won three of the last five. The parties split the final eight evenly. And Republicans have had a lead in the last 12 elections. This is hardly an era in which political changes, however striking, can be safely viewed as “irrevocable.”

Voters’ affections were not always so fickle. Between 1896 and 1928, Republicans won seven of nine presidential elections. The Democrats then won seven of the next nine (1932 to 1964) – after that the GOP won five of six (1968 to 1988).

According to Bruce Mehlman’s Age of Disruption Substack, the 2024 vote was also the sixth consecutive, including off-year elections, that changed party control of at least one of Washington’s three centers of electoral power – the presidency, the House of Representatives and the Senate. It is the longest period of instability of its kind in American history.

Meanwhile, Trump’s margins were slim, if respectably widespread. And as a lame duck who can never vote again, he must once again defy historical norms to bring about transformative political change in his final term. In his case, one hesitates to say that something is impossible just because it is unheard of – but still.