Week 17: NFL’s best bets, picks and predictions from Matt Youmans

NFL Week 17 best bets, picks and predictions from Matt Youmans:

With the NFL regular season in full swing, several division races, playoff seeds and win totals are close to being decided. The main division bet I have is on the Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC West at +390, and that outcome could be decided on Saturday when I have two best NFL bets of Week 17:

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to tips, public betting splits data and live video coverage from VSiN Upgrade to VSiN Pro. Get your first month for less than $10.*

It’s too simplistic to say that Joe Burrow is far superior to Bo Nix and that’s the reason to bet on the Bengals, but that’s a big reason for this game. In seven games since the start of November, Burrow has caught 24 touchdown passes. The connection between Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase is as good as it’s ever been in the league, helping Cincinnati overcome a defense that ranks among the worst in the league. Denver’s defense has regressed in recent weeks, allowing 6.2 yards per play in a loss to the Chargers and giving up 552 total yards in a win against the Browns with Jameis Winston passing for 497 yards. Nix often plays like a rookie and has thrown five picks in the Broncos’ last three games. The Bengals (7-8) have won three straight and have a small chance of making the playoffs, but even a small chance provides some motivation.

Week 17 NFL Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -3

An ugly start to the season, including a 41-10 loss at Arizona in Week 2, left the Rams at 1-4 and almost dead. Almost. Sean McVay worked his coaching magic and his injury-plagued team got healthier. The defense improved and the offense got hot behind the big three of quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams and wideout Puka Nacua. The Rams have an 8-2 record in their last 10 games and can clinch the division with a win over the Cardinals, who are out of playoff contention but are still poised to play the spoilsport role. The Arizona offense, led by Kyler Murray, has scored 30 points in each of the last two games. The Rams scored 19 and 12 points in their last two games, so the offense has been inconsistent. This is McVay’s month – the Rams are 15-2 ATS in their last games on Dec. 17, including 4-0 this month. I’m betting this is +7 on Wednesday and still think the Cardinals stay that close in the fourth quarter.

Week 17 NFL Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals +6.5

Washington is on the verge of its record win of the season, a 36-33 victory over the Eagles, fueled by five touchdown passes from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. After a big win, beware of disappointment. This could be a lull for the Commanders, who still have several defensive deficiencies and allowed 211 rushing yards to Philadelphia. Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson has averaged 103 rushing yards over the last four games, and rookie quarterback Michael Penix should be better in his second start this week. The Falcons (8-7) have a lot ahead of them in the hunt for the NFC South title. For some books the limit has dropped to 3.5, but +4 is still available.

Week 17 NFL Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +4

Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit underdog for just the second time in his 260-start career. In 2022, Rodgers scored 10.5 points with Green Bay in a 27-17 loss at Buffalo. Rodgers’ passing numbers have improved over the last three games, and he’s actually playing with something he has to prove as he wants to come back in 2025. In their last seven games since early November, the Bills are 6-1, winning only one by more than 10 points. I haven’t bet on the Jets since their 21-13 win over the Texans in Week 9, so I haven’t gotten burned on this team and don’t have any battle scars to stop me from making this attempt.

Week 17 NFL Best Bet: Jets +10

With quarterback Jalen Hurts out, Philadelphia will turn to backup Kenny Pickett, and the loss is significant. The Eagles will rely even more on running back Saquon Barkley, who can count on more than 20 carries. Barkley has surpassed 100 rushing yards in five of the last six games and is a good bet to do so again against a Dallas defense weakened by serious injuries. In a strange twist, the Cowboys are 5-2 on the road and are suddenly playing more relaxed and confident, winning four of their last five games. Dallas quarterback Cooper Rush is getting the job done, although his job will be more difficult now without injured outside linebacker CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys probably won’t win, but they can provide coverage with the help of Brandon Aubrey, who is a real weapon as a long-distance kicker.

Week 17 NFL Best Bet: Dallas Cowboys +7.5

Last week: 3-1-1 against the spread
Season: 36-39-5

For more best bets for NFL Week 17, visit the NFL Week 17 Hub exclusively on VSiN.com.