What I see: Where the Maple Leafs need to find more offense

All in all, the Toronto Maple Leafs have to be proud of their performance without Auston Matthews for almost a month.

Nine games. Seven wins. It’s hard to do much better.

However, it is clear that some issues need to be addressed, most notably the valuable lack of a five-on-five offense. I have some thoughts about that, as well as the short-term future of Fraser Minten and the current situation.

1. The nine 5-on-5 goals the Leafs have scored in these nine games without Matthews are the fewest in the league and come from six players:

Bobby McMann: 3
William Nylander: 2
Mitch Marner: 1
Matthew Knies: 1
Fraser Minten: 1
Conor Timmins: 1

Five of the nine goals were scored by two players. Or to put it another way: The Leafs have had four five-on-five goals from everyone not named McMann and Nylander in the last nine games.

Such sluggish production cannot reasonably be sustained and will obviously be helped by the return of the NHL’s best five-on-five scorer. (Consider this: Since the start of the 2021-22 season, Matthews has scored 18 more five-on-five goals than the next closest player, David Pastrňák, and Pastrňák has played in 19 more games.)

The most notable player who didn’t even score a five-on-five goal during that time: John Tavares. In fact, he has gone 12 games in a row without a five-on-five goal. He last scored about a month ago, twice in the Leafs’ win over Winnipeg on Oct. 28. And before that, he scored in Toronto’s win over New Jersey on the second night of the season. But that’s it for the season.

Tavares has played well in more challenging terrain without Matthews, especially for a man in his 16th NHL season. And he recorded three primary assists in that nine-game span. Still, he clearly needs to start taking advantage of his opportunities.

The Leafs aren’t deep enough to thrive without him.

Tavares’ expected goal total is almost five at this point. In other words, given the looks he got, he should score two more goals. In short, there is reason to believe it can offer more.

2. A few other players who stood out: Marner and Knies, who combined for two five-on-five goals in nine games. (Knies missed two games due to injury.)

Combined with Tavares, that’s a total of two goals from three top-six forwards in almost a month. The Leafs will need a lot more considering how little they can expect from their bottom two lines (especially given the amount of injuries).

Take a closer look at the numbers and it’s noticeable how few shots Marner and Knies took in five-on-five play.

This idea that Marner shot the puck more in Matthew’s absence: Not true, at least in a five-on-five system. Marner has summed up five shots on goal at five-on-five in the nine games without Matthews, as many as Alex Steeves, Steven Lorentz and Pontus Holmberg and one fewer than Connor Dewar.

That’s what Craig Berube is talking about when he says Marner needs to be more aggressive shooting the puck. And Marner has delivered more and more: Four of those five shots have come in the last three games, meaning he had one in the previous six shots (he scored a breakaway goal against Utah on one of those shots).

Like Tavares, Marner has played quite well in Matthews’ absence. He was particularly effective on defense and in special teams. He has scored four power-play goals since Matthews’ exit, plus a shorthanded goal and a three-on-three overtime game-winner.

However, Marner only has one five-on-five assist in Matthews’ absence. It’s his only five-on-five assist in November (and he was a secondary reliever).

That was the thing with the Tavares-Marner combination in last year’s playoffs: They were excellent defensively but struggled to get much going on offense.

Marner is averaging 1.97 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season, which would be the lowest point total of his career.

Last season: 2.68. The season before: 2.78. The season before: 3.47.

Knies is expected to return on Saturday. Before the injury, he had taken just five shots on goal at five-on-five in the last seven games and eight in the last nine games.

The Leafs need him to embrace the shooting mentality he started the season with. In the season opener against Montreal, he had five shots in five-on-five play.

3. The underlying numbers aren’t great so far, but the Leafs should continue the Minten 3C experiment for a while.

First, here are Minten’s numbers in his 32 minutes at five-on-five:

Shot attempts: 19-42
Shots: 9-18
High Danger Trials: 2-9
Goals: 1-1
Expected goals: 32 percent

Minten was on the ice for Florida’s only five-on-five goal on Wednesday. Yet the Leafs still held their own in his nearly 10 minutes, even winning their minutes against the Panthers’ intimidating line of Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett.

The expected goals for Minten were around 53 percent overall. Not bad considering the opponent.

The Leafs should stay at 3°C ​​at Fraser Minten for now. (Dan Hamilton/Imagn Images)

This is about both Minten and the other options in the middle.

The Holmberg-3C experiment has already failed. Holmberg’s offensive limitations became even more apparent when the 2C performed in the absence of Max Domi.

The Leafs scored two five-on-five goals the whole season with Holmberg on the ice.

Domi’s return doesn’t seem imminent.

Minten could be able to bring similar defensive expertise to Holmberg, with more potential on offense, especially if the Leafs surround him with a bit more talent (which may not be possible any time soon).

If McMann misses Saturday’s game in Tampa, I suspect Berube Holmberg will stick with Matthews and Nylander (offensive issues aside), assuming he can return from this mysterious injury. Here’s how the Leafs practiced on Tuesday.

This would put Knies in place of McMann alongside Marner and Tavares.

Holmberg – Matthews – W. Nylander
Knies – Tavares – Marner
Robertson – Minten – Grebenkin/A. Nylander
Steeves-Dewar-Lorentz

Berube may also decide at some point soon that he wants to pair Marner with Matthews again given his team’s offensive woes.

4. Anthony Stolarz started on Wednesday evening for the first time in eleven days and conceded four goals for only the third time all season.

That’s 10 goals conceded in the last three starts for Stolarz.

Will the Leafs even give him the next start in Tampa? Or do they go back to Joseph Woll, who has won his last four games?

Woll made two consecutive starts before Stolarz’s appearance in Florida and played quite well.

The Leafs find themselves in a slightly difficult situation with their two goaltenders. They must find a balance between working sharply and dynamically while taking into account their respective workloads. For example, I wonder if Stolarz lost some of his rhythm in the long break between starts. He’s already more than half his career high for starts in a season.

I would return to Stolarz on Saturday and reach out to Woll on Monday when the team hosts Chicago. After that, the Leafs play on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday. Both goalkeepers will be busy.

– Statistics and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey

(Top photo by John Tavares: Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)