When Trump recognizes the Crimea, the biggest losers are Ukraine – and the USA, experts say, say

While Ukrainian, American and European officials meet in London to discuss a US peace plan that includes the recognition of the illegal annexation of the Crimea of ​​Russia, experts warn that the formal handover of Crimea in Russia would violate international law and may open the door to further global conflicts.

Other experts continue and say that the US peace proposal, which is reported, also includes the recognition of the Ukrainian territory in Russian concern and a ban on NATO membership for Ukraine, whereas they are asked little by Kremlin in return from the American US Kremlin.

“This is not a negotiation, this is the surrender,” said Aaron Gask Burnett, Security Expert and Senior Fellow in the democratic strategy initiative.

“The Russians get everything they want,” he told The Kyiv Independent and added that “the United States essentially trying to negotiate Ukraine and the United States created its own international leadership.”

In an interview with journalists on April 23, the US Vice President JD Vance described the plan “very fair” before threatening both Russia and Ukraine to say yes to the proposal, or the United States would move away from the negotiations.

Violating international law and undermining security

Russia illegally accepted the Crimea in 2014 after the decision by Euromaidan, who was used by the decision of the then President Viktor Yanukowitsch, from an association contract with the EU.

In response to this, the USA and 99 other Member States of the United Nations General Assembly voted for a decision in which the annexation was illegally explained.

The official recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation would now be “a clear violation of international law,” said Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham.

“It is unlikely that the majority of the remaining allies in Ukraine will follow, but other countries that are more likely to deal with Russia,” Wolff, Wolff, could independently independent.

Leaving the Crimea in the hands of Russia would “open a can of worms in all possible global conflicts,” said Burnett.

“Authority will learn that they only really penetrate their neighbors, stick them out, and then they will finally be rewarded for it – this imperialism pays,” he added.

Even if a cascading effect of other invasions and annexation remains to be seen as a result of the proper recognition of the US Crimea, several candidates could be the example of Russia such as Venezuela with Guayana, Morocco with Western Sahara, Rwanda and the eastern DRC, Sudan or South Sudan and the area from Abyei to Wolffs.

“These countries may feel encouraged,” said Wolff. “But that doesn’t mean that they would definitely get through because their regional and global neighbors may not feel inclined to tolerate such illegal land complaints.”

According to Burnett, the neighbors of Ukraine in Europe also have the necessary resources to oppose the US proposal.

“If (the United States recognizes the Crimea as Russian), it is on Europe,” he said. “It will be an indictment of how far Europe has fallen when it agrees to this type of deal.”

“(You could react afterwards) Increase your own willingness to support Ukraine with a military set, with boots in any form or in my opinion, in order to finally confiscate the 300 billion US dollars of frozen assets and to transfer them to a compensation fund for Ukraine,” added Burnett.

Europe must finally take over its security – starting in Ukraine

It ended with a bang, no whimper. At the end of this year’s Munich Security Conference, the old US-led security instructions did not seem to recognize. Now when Russia’s full scale begins in its fourth year and start peace talks, without clarity about Europe or

Weak negotiators

During his first term in office, US President Donald Trump confirmed the opposition to Russia’s illegal Crimea by accepting the Crimean Declaration.

In the explanation that the then State Secretary Mike Pompeo was created, it says: “The United States rejects the attempted annexation of the Crimea of ​​Russia and promises to maintain this directive until Ukrainian territorial integrity is restored.”

Trump’s current plan to reverse the course through its own former administration, and the international community appears less a negotiation tactic than a surrender of the requirements of Russia, explain experts.

“The idea that they would recognize both the Crimea and NATO for Ukraine on the table is ridiculous,” said Burnett.

“It may be different if the United States (that Russia) can have the Crimea, but the rest of Ukraine is coming to NATO.

“The United States does not ask Russia to give up anything.”

Experts say that a peace proposal that gives up Russia too much sacrifices its international leadership by threatening its own interests, which also includes peaceful, stable Europe.

“It would also be unprecedented in the sense that Washington would be set with Russia to an extent that itself does not have Beijing,” said Wolff.

“All sticks are only for Putin for Ukraine and carrots,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, a top member of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s party. “It looks unfair, it looks ridiculous. As a result, Trump looks weak, definitely not strong and not great.”

“The only thing it really does is that it signals to the world that America is interested in washing his hands from this whole thing,” said Burnett.

Will Ukraine accept the recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation?

According to the legislator, there is no constitutional mechanism for the Ukrainian government to accept a violation of territorial integrity. The constitution of Ukraine states that questions of changing the territory of Ukraine, to which Crimally belongs, should be solved exclusively by the nationwide referendum.

The recognition of the illegal annexation of Russia from Crimea is an extremely unpopular decision among the Ukrainians. The acceptance of the US proposal would probably be political suicide for everyone in the Ukrainian leadership.

“The recognition of the Crimea as Russian not only contradicts the official position of Ukraine – that it is a clear red line – and it would never be accepted by the Ukrainian people,” said Halyna Yanchenko, a Ukrainian legislature of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s servant of the People Party.

“No Ukrainian government has the mandate to recognize Crimea as Russian,” she told The Kyiv Independent. “There is simply no chance that such a deal would say goodbye to a coordination in the Ukrainian parliament.”

Nariman Dzhelyal, Deputy Chairman of the Mejlis, a representative group of indigenous crime tatars, who were persecuted by Russia in Crimea, said that Crimean tatars have always supported the territorial integrity of Ukraine and European integration.

“The fixed statements of our leadership about their intention to continue the fight for the liberation of the Crimea are the only thing that gives the Ukrainian citizens a feeling of hope for the future,” said Dzhelyal, former political prisoner, who was released after three years in a Russian prison in 2024 in an exchange.

Since the beginning of the full Russian invasion, surveys have shown that the Ukrainians largely refuse to give up the Crimea.

In March 2022, 80% of the respondents said everything in a survey by the Independent Group Rating to bring the Crimea and Russian Eastern Donbas under the control of Ukraine.

Some in Ukraine accepted the idea of ​​territorial concessions in exchange for peace in the course of the full invasion. According to a nationwide survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in 2024, no more than 32% of the Ukrainians declared to be considered to give away some areas to Russia.

“Our people will not accept frozen conflict that is disguised as peace. We will never recognize the occupation of the Crimea,” said Yuliia Svyrydenko, the first deputy prime minister of Ukraine, on April 23.

Chris York contributed the reporting on this article.

Note from the author:

Hello, this is Natalia Yermak, the author of this piece. In our newsroom it is in the days like this “All Hands on Deck” when the fate of Ukraine is decided on a global level. Your support is of essential importance for our reporting. Please consider the support of the Kyiv Independent of become a member. Thank you very much!

The annexation of Crimea 2014 – How Russia stole the Ukraine peninsula

Russia confiscated in February 2014 in the deadliest days of the Euromaidan Revolution, who finally replaced Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych. While Janukowitsch’s pro-Russian regime killed demonstrators in Central Kyiv, around 30,000 Russian troops crossed the Crimea and went the 27,000 square meters