Will NASA’s moon rocket be canceled in favor of Musk’s Mars project?

Since Donald Trump’s recent election victory, rumors and speculation have been circulating that NASA’s giant moon rocket, the Space Launch System (SLS), could be under threat. The rocket is one of several key components in the US space agency’s Artemis program, which aims to return humans to the moon for the first time since 1972.

For the first lunar landing mission, called Artemis III, the SLS will launch four astronauts on NASA’s Orion crew capsule. Orion will then travel to the moon. Once in lunar orbit, Orion will dock with Elon Musk’s Starship vehicle (launched separately). Two astronauts will float in Starship, which will undock from Orion and fly down to the lunar surface.

After entering the moon, the two astronauts return to lunar orbit with Starship, where they dock with Orion. The two moonwalkers rejoin their crewmates and return home on the Orion, leaving Starship in orbit around the moon.

US space journalist Eric Berger recently posted on

No official announcements have been made. However, such a move could be in line with previous speculation that the Trump administration could gut NASA and force it to outsource much of its work to private companies.

But could another rocket easily replace the SLS? This question goes to the heart of what America wants to achieve in the emerging space race of the 21st century. China has pledged to send its astronauts to the lunar surface by 2030. Unlike the US, China is usually conservative in its estimates, so we can assume that a postponement is unlikely. Some in the space industry believe that if China were to be the first to reach the moon this century, it would deal a major blow to U.S. space ambitions.

Meanwhile, several elements of Artemis are delaying the US schedule. One of these delayed elements is Musk’s spacecraft, which acts as a lander on Artemis III. There are still major milestones to be demonstrated, including refueling in space and completing a landing on the moon without a crew.

Musk was appointed as one of two key cost-cutters in the new administration and is seeking up to $2 trillion in federal budget cuts. Some observers were concerned about Elon Musk’s closeness to Trump and the president-elect’s comments about shifting focus to a manned mission to Mars.

These comments appear to reflect the views of Musk, who has focused much of his energy on colonizing the Red Planet rather than the moon. The billionaire said he wants to send people on a trip to Mars in his spacecraft by 2028 – a timeline some consider unrealistic.

In fact, it was the first Trump administration to launch the Artemis program in 2017. After initial missions to the lunar surface, the program aims to establish a permanent base where astronauts can learn how to live and work on the Moon while conducting cutting-edge research.

However, the schedule has been shaken. US astronauts were scheduled to land on the moon this year. NASA now says the first landing during the Artemis III mission will not occur until fall 2026.

Delays were caused by spacesuit redesigns, problems with the heat shield and life support systems of Orion and, as previously mentioned, Starship. A modernized mobile launch tower for the SLS was also plagued by cost overruns and schedule delays.

In particular, one element that does not contribute to delays is the SLS, which performed very well during the Artemis I mission in 2022. Many billions of dollars have already been invested in the planning and construction of the SLS and associated infrastructure at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

According to NASA, the SLS is “the only rocket capable of sending Orion, astronauts and cargo directly to the Moon in a single launch.” However, the cost has been criticized: each SLS launch is estimated to cost more than $2 billion.

News of delays and technical issues at Artemis was accompanied by extremely positive PR for Musk’s SpaceX – particularly around Starship’s test flights. That included last month’s feat in which the vehicle’s giant booster stage was captured in two robotic arms as it fell back from space to the company’s launch pad in Texas – which thrilled space enthusiasts around the world. Unlike many launch vehicles, Starship is designed to be completely reusable. Its cost-effectiveness could greatly benefit future manned missions.

If the SLS were canceled, could Musk’s spacecraft replace it? In this scenario, the SpaceX vehicle could presumably serve as both a launch vehicle to send astronauts into lunar orbit and a lander to bring them to the surface. Although this is technically feasible, it would be anything but a simple, equivalent replacement. The SLS is already an operational rocket, while Starship is still in the testing phase and there are still important steps to complete before astronauts can board.

Another SpaceX rocket previously touted as a candidate to launch Orion is the Falcon Heavy. However, engineers would have to modify both the rocket and the assembly and launch procedures. This would introduce many uncertainties and therefore the risk of further significant delays to the Artemis schedule. This all suggests there isn’t much time for major changes to NASA’s lunar program if the U.S. wants to advance in the 21st century space race.

Rocket launches require specialized designs to meet mission requirements as well as extensive planning for transporting astronauts, spacecraft and payloads. The goal of Artemis is not only to land astronauts on the Moon, but also to be able to land in various regions of the lunar surface, including the relatively unexplored South Pole.

The planning and development required is extremely complex and ambitious. It remains to be seen whether SpaceX or other commercial launch vehicles are ready for such a major undertaking and commitment.

Since tens of billions of dollars have already been invested in the SLS, it does not appear economically advantageous to completely eliminate the rocket. As evidenced by NASA’s willingness to take an innovative approach and partner with commercial companies on future Artemis missions, there may be other opportunities for commercial space actors to get involved.

It is understandable that the new Trump administration is raising questions and questioning cost models in NASA programs. However, it would be wise for them to carefully consider the trade-offs before making decisions with such far-reaching consequences.

It might come down to whether the priority is winning the new space race. Whatever goals the new administration prioritizes or pursues, it may need to carefully justify that decision to other lawmakers and the American public.

Yang Gao is Professor of Robotics and Director of the Center for Robotics Research at King’s College London.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.